Forecast Model for Transmission of Natural Gas of Loopline and Mainline: A Time Series Analysis using Box Jenkins Approach

Abstract

Suitable forecast model for Natural Gas Transmission System of Loopline and Natural Gas Transmission System of Mainline has been finalized. Using BoxJenkins Approach (1976), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model has been produced. Box-Jenkins Approach (1976) included Stationarity of the series, estimation of correlogram for identification of order of ARIMA models and selection of most adequate and appropriate model by applying diagnostics checks. Later on, by comparing values of Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSC), Theil Inequality Coefficient (TIC) and Standard Error (S.E.) of Regression for each model, forecast model is finalized. In the end, forecasts have been made using selected models and compared these forecast values with the actual values for 2010 in order to check the accuracy of the model.